25 of the 214 runners on Sun 27 Sept moved further than usual for their price
We sample the Smarkets order book every fifteen minutes until the off. This is the finished record for the races run on Sun 27 Sept: 214 runners in 23 races, each with the first and the last price we saw before it ran. 25 of them moved further than usual for their price.
Corrected. Reissued on 6 October 2026. A faulty country filter had let runners at meetings outside the UK and Ireland, mostly German and Saudi, into this archive. Any that ran on this day have been removed, and every percentile has been recomputed against a baseline without them.
“Usual” is judged against the 38 days we had collected before this one, and nothing later. A move is compared with what had been measured by the evening before, so the count above does not change as the archive grows.
214
runners tracked to the off
23
races
25
outside the usual range
38d
of earlier collection it was judged against
Outside the usual range
Race
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
How unusual for this price
Curragh 13:25
Raging Bull
3.41
1.64
-51.8%
10 min
a larger shortening than any measured at this price by then
Ffos Las 13:19
The Bear Of Saints
32.89
12.48
-62.0%
4 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 13:25
Golden Idol
30.17
11.48
-61.9%
10 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 13:25
Yellow Sky
51.02
17.21
-66.3%
10 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 14:35
Royal Bay Cen
6.32
3.45
-45.4%
5 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Ffos Las 14:59
A Daughters Love
8.58
17.75
+106.8%
14 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Ffos Las 14:59
No Ordinary Joe
11.20
23.39
+108.8%
14 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 15:10
Valentino Eclipse
2.39
1.65
-30.7%
10 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 15:45
Damsel In Distress
4.29
2.71
-36.9%
under 1 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 16:20
Too Bossy For Us
22.65
66.67
+194.3%
5 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 17:30
Fianna
10.34
5.20
-49.7%
under 1 min
bigger than 99% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 13:25
Ah Sure Look
46.51
91.74
+97.2%
10 min
bigger than 98% of moves measured at this price by then
Ffos Las 15:34
Fourth Crusade
40.49
78.74
+94.5%
4 min
bigger than 98% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 16:20
Port Of Spain
11.11
20.94
+88.5%
5 min
bigger than 98% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 17:30
Casheldale Lass
14.43
32.73
+126.8%
under 1 min
bigger than 98% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 13:25
Maximilien Luce
21.25
10.98
-48.4%
10 min
bigger than 97% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 15:10
Caislean Ni Cuan
93.02
36.76
-60.5%
10 min
bigger than 97% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 15:45
Value Pending
15.86
30.72
+93.7%
under 1 min
bigger than 97% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 17:30
Alfalfa
39.06
71.68
+83.5%
under 1 min
bigger than 97% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 13:25
Soho Dragon
49.14
85.84
+74.7%
10 min
bigger than 96% of moves measured at this price by then
Ffos Las 15:34
Time Glory
36.97
66.67
+80.3%
4 min
bigger than 96% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 13:25
Activity
53.33
92.59
+73.6%
25 min
bigger than 95% of moves measured at this price by then
Epsom Downs 13:37
Rogue Imperial
10.70
17.48
+63.5%
7 min
bigger than 95% of moves measured at this price by then
Curragh 14:35
East Hampton
46.30
21.39
-53.8%
5 min
bigger than 95% of moves measured at this price by then
Epsom Downs 14:47
Seacole
6.03
9.09
+50.7%
2 min
bigger than 95% of moves measured at this price by then
Prices are the mid of the best back and lay on Smarkets, in decimal odds. A negative move is a price shortening. “Last look” is how long before the off we last saw a two-sided book for that runner. Race times are BST.
Every runner that day
Grouped by race, and within a race from the largest shortening to the largest drift, so that money leaving one runner for another shows at the two ends of the same block.
Ffos Las 13:19 11 runners, 1 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
The Bear Of Saints
32.89
12.48
-62.0%
4 min
8.0%
Blue Point Express
8.36
6.10
-27.0%
4 min
3.3%
Sub Thirteen
4.16
3.62
-12.9%
4 min
1.4%
Great Success
33.61
29.33
-12.8%
1h 34m
17.1%
Savvi Row
90.91
84.03
-7.6%
4 min
23.9%
Shush A Minute
13.20
12.98
-1.7%
4 min
7.7%
Music And Song
10.37
10.98
+5.9%
4 min
9.0%
Pacific Prince
59.52
63.49
+6.7%
4 min
31.9%
Lochaber
66.67
86.96
+30.4%
34 min
17.5%
Up The Anti
8.09
10.98
+35.7%
4 min
9.0%
Macarone
3.87
5.40
+39.5%
4 min
3.7%
Curragh 13:25 15 runners, 7 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Yellow Sky
51.02
17.21
-66.3%
10 min
8.6%
Golden Idol
30.17
11.48
-61.9%
10 min
8.7%
Raging Bull
3.41
1.64
-51.8%
10 min
1.8%
Overhead Drive
40.08
20.39
-49.1%
10 min
14.6%
Maximilien Luce
21.25
10.98
-48.4%
10 min
9.0%
Normanton
36.23
23.81
-34.3%
10 min
16.8%
Tsali
74.07
53.33
-28.0%
10 min
22.1%
Silk Twist
66.67
69.69
+4.5%
1h 25m
57.8%
Hmas Perth
2.15
2.25
+4.8%
3h 25m
12.4%
Muscogee Nation
13.38
14.22
+6.3%
3h 40m
28.1%
Johntom
63.09
81.97
+29.9%
2h 10m
85.4%
One Flash
70.18
96.15
+37.0%
40 min
42.1%
Activity
53.33
92.59
+73.6%
25 min
32.3%
Soho Dragon
49.14
85.84
+74.7%
10 min
28.9%
Ah Sure Look
46.51
91.74
+97.2%
10 min
16.6%
Epsom Downs 13:37 8 runners, 1 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
The Ginger Kid
5.69
4.70
-17.5%
7 min
4.3%
Give Hand
4.54
4.05
-10.9%
7 min
2.5%
Leucothea
29.50
26.85
-9.0%
7 min
14.8%
Telegraphic
8.18
7.60
-7.1%
7 min
5.2%
Clive The Writer
10.58
10.25
-3.2%
7 min
4.9%
Angel Of Desire
15.86
15.71
-0.9%
7 min
9.6%
Regal Tiger
4.90
6.29
+28.3%
7 min
9.6%
Rogue Imperial
10.70
17.48
+63.5%
7 min
5.6%
Ffos Las 13:49 8 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Perigord Noir
6.90
5.75
-16.6%
4 min
1.7%
Naval Cop
6.78
6.10
-10.0%
4 min
3.3%
Defiant Dream
45.77
42.83
-6.4%
4 min
14.2%
Rhodes Runner
3.80
3.65
-3.9%
4 min
2.7%
Knock Three Times
5.83
5.90
+1.2%
4 min
3.4%
Blondie Larry
9.07
10.98
+21.0%
4 min
9.0%
Wolf's Gallop
9.90
12.48
+26.1%
4 min
8.0%
Niewiadoma
22.27
31.01
+39.2%
4 min
6.5%
Curragh 14:00 8 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Silent Kingdom
99.50
51.28
-48.5%
under 1 min
13.4%
Cluster
3.87
3.45
-10.9%
under 1 min
2.9%
Breath Of Paradise
11.36
10.37
-8.7%
4h 30m
11.5%
Kingdom Of Camelot
2.16
1.97
-8.6%
under 1 min
1.0%
Capability Brown
8.32
8.09
-2.8%
under 1 min
7.5%
Darivan
29.98
31.30
+4.4%
under 1 min
16.1%
Warrawood
67.57
81.97
+21.3%
3h 45m
85.4%
Greatest Knight
32.89
61.54
+87.1%
under 1 min
24.4%
Epsom Downs 14:12 5 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Rose Moon
2.71
2.25
-17.0%
12 min
2.7%
Sword Salute
13.42
11.98
-10.8%
12 min
8.4%
Al Wathba
4.40
4.24
-3.5%
12 min
7.1%
Quite Cheeky
3.62
5.05
+39.3%
12 min
6.0%
Bincimbal
18.08
26.95
+49.1%
12 min
7.6%
Ffos Las 14:24 4 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Call Time
2.02
1.68
-16.8%
9 min
1.8%
Bama Lama
5.97
6.89
+15.3%
9 min
8.7%
Some Nightmare
3.27
4.25
+29.9%
9 min
2.3%
Snow Day
22.99
38.76
+68.6%
9 min
15.6%
Curragh 14:35 9 runners, 2 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
East Hampton
46.30
21.39
-53.8%
5 min
14.0%
Tango Flare
68.73
32.10
-53.3%
5 min
21.8%
Royal Bay Cen
6.32
3.45
-45.4%
5 min
2.9%
Fregada
97.56
54.05
-44.6%
3h 5m
47.9%
Brussels
8.16
7.39
-9.4%
5 min
5.4%
Charles Darwin
31.50
32.10
+1.9%
50 min
21.8%
Big Gossey
11.11
13.71
+23.4%
5 min
10.9%
Power Blue
3.35
4.35
+29.9%
5 min
2.3%
Soul Love
3.82
5.00
+30.7%
5 min
4.0%
Epsom Downs 14:47 5 runners, 1 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Rowlf
3.79
2.81
-25.9%
2 min
2.1%
Red Red
36.23
32.10
-11.4%
2 min
21.8%
Maestro Del Mar
5.28
4.75
-10.1%
2 min
2.1%
Blue Noon
2.77
3.40
+22.8%
2 min
2.9%
Seacole
6.03
9.09
+50.7%
2 min
6.6%
Ffos Las 14:59 5 runners, 2 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Queenie St Clair
4.30
3.38
-21.5%
14 min
1.5%
Campeona
3.15
2.79
-11.4%
14 min
2.2%
Carthusian
3.92
4.02
+2.5%
14 min
3.7%
A Daughters Love
8.58
17.75
+106.8%
14 min
2.7%
No Ordinary Joe
11.20
23.39
+108.8%
14 min
12.9%
Curragh 15:10 8 runners, 2 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Caislean Ni Cuan
93.02
36.76
-60.5%
10 min
16.3%
Valentino Eclipse
2.39
1.65
-30.7%
10 min
0.6%
Port Arthur
29.50
27.86
-5.6%
10 min
14.6%
A Good Yarn
4.92
4.95
+0.5%
10 min
2.0%
Tribal Belle
67.80
70.18
+3.5%
25 min
35.4%
Saga Lucia
23.67
28.45
+20.2%
10 min
10.6%
Tourin
11.70
14.20
+21.4%
10 min
10.5%
The Hidden Garden
43.38
56.50
+30.2%
10 min
26.4%
Epsom Downs 15:22 13 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Hengest
44.94
25.48
-43.3%
7 min
3.8%
Damascus Steel
20.08
16.49
-17.9%
7 min
6.1%
Seeking Charles
5.14
4.45
-13.4%
7 min
2.3%
Tiger
9.16
7.99
-12.7%
7 min
5.0%
Oneforthegutter
12.98
12.75
-1.8%
7 min
4.0%
Marnier
12.12
12.48
+3.0%
7 min
8.0%
Nibras Gold
9.58
10.25
+7.0%
7 min
4.9%
Zarakerjack
14.04
15.48
+10.3%
7 min
6.5%
Taritino
21.91
25.41
+16.0%
7 min
12.0%
Gordon Grey
16.45
19.21
+16.8%
7 min
7.9%
Fox Avatar
6.98
9.00
+28.9%
7 min
4.4%
Oasis Sunrise
37.11
53.33
+43.7%
7 min
22.1%
Flash Man
53.91
81.97
+52.0%
7 min
18.2%
Ffos Las 15:34 5 runners, 2 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Silent Force
1.55
1.51
-2.8%
3h 19m
2.6%
Naval Empire
19.19
20.66
+7.6%
4 min
12.0%
Ghost Raider
4.04
5.05
+24.8%
4 min
2.0%
Time Glory
36.97
66.67
+80.3%
4 min
23.0%
Fourth Crusade
40.49
78.74
+94.5%
4 min
44.5%
Curragh 15:45 7 runners, 2 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Lady Patrona
98.04
53.33
-45.6%
15 min
22.1%
Damsel In Distress
4.29
2.71
-36.9%
under 1 min
2.2%
Curracloe
2.45
2.78
+13.5%
under 1 min
1.4%
Alpine Wedding
5.29
6.10
+15.2%
under 1 min
3.3%
Tosca No Candis
62.31
91.74
+47.2%
under 1 min
16.6%
Film Set
13.01
19.67
+51.1%
under 1 min
12.8%
Value Pending
15.86
30.72
+93.7%
under 1 min
19.5%
Epsom Downs 15:57 5 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Matins
1.92
1.70
-11.5%
12 min
1.2%
Echalar
6.79
6.79
0.0%
12 min
5.8%
Rajeko
16.16
17.48
+8.2%
12 min
5.6%
Cogitate
9.28
10.70
+15.3%
12 min
14.0%
Carnival Day
5.94
8.39
+41.3%
12 min
4.8%
Ffos Las 16:09 9 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Grand Vista
17.14
11.48
-33.0%
9 min
8.7%
Cosmic Girl
12.93
10.48
-19.0%
9 min
9.6%
Prince Ali
10.70
9.60
-10.3%
9 min
4.2%
A Rose Adaay
15.94
15.71
-1.4%
9 min
9.6%
Pebble Dash
14.74
14.72
-0.1%
9 min
10.2%
Scarfo
5.14
5.15
+0.2%
9 min
5.8%
Rosemary's Rose
4.30
4.85
+12.9%
9 min
2.0%
Thestral
19.21
22.40
+16.6%
9 min
13.3%
Homeland
5.63
7.19
+27.8%
9 min
5.6%
Curragh 16:20 28 runners, 2 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Chally Chute
34.07
20.22
-40.6%
5 min
7.5%
Comfort Zone
60.79
36.76
-39.5%
5 min
16.3%
Kingstonian
38.84
26.95
-30.6%
5 min
7.6%
Blake
17.71
12.98
-26.7%
5 min
7.7%
Light Up The Dark
21.60
16.99
-21.3%
5 min
6.0%
Tennessee Stud
72.73
66.67
-8.3%
5 min
23.0%
Bunting
32.68
30.44
-6.8%
5 min
10.1%
The Reverend
7.23
6.79
-6.1%
5 min
5.8%
Leinster
56.34
53.33
-5.3%
5 min
22.1%
Sirius
38.84
36.76
-5.3%
5 min
16.3%
Granite Bay
38.84
38.76
-0.2%
5 min
15.6%
Galileo Dame
51.55
53.33
+3.5%
5 min
22.1%
Cornelienne
92.59
99.50
+7.5%
4h 5m
35.9%
Sky Captain
7.72
8.50
+10.2%
5 min
2.3%
Absurde
68.03
76.63
+12.6%
5 min
19.3%
Zanndabad
72.73
81.97
+12.7%
5 min
18.2%
Eagle Fang
76.34
86.96
+13.9%
5 min
17.5%
Valiancy
14.74
17.48
+18.6%
5 min
5.6%
Madbadanddangerous
81.63
97.56
+19.5%
50 min
4.9%
Shoda
35.40
42.83
+21.0%
5 min
14.2%
Glenroyal
78.74
95.69
+21.5%
20 min
26.3%
Tim Toe
10.54
12.98
+23.1%
5 min
7.7%
Alphonse Le Grande
38.84
53.33
+37.3%
5 min
22.1%
A Piece Of Heaven
41.75
62.31
+49.2%
5 min
8.1%
Immutable
53.48
81.97
+53.3%
5 min
18.2%
Shosholoza
34.84
56.50
+62.1%
5 min
26.4%
Port Of Spain
11.11
20.94
+88.5%
5 min
9.4%
Too Bossy For Us
22.65
66.67
+194.3%
5 min
23.0%
Epsom Downs 16:32 9 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Jungle Ruler
12.25
8.39
-31.5%
2 min
4.8%
Thanos
6.59
5.55
-15.8%
2 min
1.8%
Swiped
4.95
4.65
-6.0%
2 min
2.1%
Galileo Island
53.91
53.33
-1.1%
1h 2m
22.1%
Crown Office
4.00
4.10
+2.5%
2 min
4.9%
Bubbles Wonky
19.10
20.66
+8.2%
2 min
12.0%
Dr Strangelove
13.42
15.71
+17.0%
2 min
9.6%
Likeness
7.89
9.60
+21.7%
2 min
4.2%
Play Me
24.24
32.10
+32.4%
2 min
21.8%
Ffos Las 16:44 10 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Arvana Belle
2.72
2.25
-17.3%
14 min
0.9%
Kaleidoscope Eyes
9.58
8.60
-10.2%
14 min
4.6%
King of The Dance
7.78
7.39
-5.0%
14 min
5.4%
Benavente
80.00
88.89
+11.1%
1h 14m
85.4%
Freedom Bay
9.58
10.75
+12.2%
14 min
4.6%
Desiderata
10.79
12.98
+20.2%
14 min
7.7%
Naval Ensign
78.74
95.24
+21.0%
44 min
57.4%
Yoko
19.55
24.94
+27.6%
14 min
8.0%
Revich
10.58
16.72
+58.0%
14 min
9.0%
Marisitta
23.34
40.82
+74.9%
14 min
14.8%
Curragh 16:55 9 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Moon Sand
4.40
3.25
-26.1%
10 min
3.1%
Exchange Student
5.04
4.95
-1.8%
10 min
2.0%
Romance
5.39
5.90
+9.4%
10 min
3.4%
Our Boy Bailey
11.42
12.75
+11.7%
10 min
4.0%
Two Brigade
14.14
16.72
+18.2%
10 min
9.0%
Closefield Beau
13.33
16.25
+21.9%
10 min
3.1%
Gabby Hayes
12.82
15.71
+22.5%
10 min
9.6%
Matavai Bay
22.65
32.10
+41.7%
10 min
21.8%
Supreme Act
21.25
31.30
+47.3%
10 min
16.1%
Epsom Downs 17:07 10 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Middleton View
43.48
32.73
-24.7%
7 min
18.2%
Havana Smile
17.95
14.72
-18.0%
7 min
10.2%
Wreck It Ryley
11.98
10.25
-14.4%
7 min
4.9%
Eazy On The Eye
6.78
6.10
-10.0%
7 min
3.3%
Silver Trumpet
5.49
5.25
-4.4%
7 min
1.9%
Our Guy
90.91
88.89
-2.2%
7 min
22.5%
Fresh Fade
32.26
32.73
+1.5%
7 min
18.2%
Musical Angel
4.14
4.55
+9.8%
7 min
2.2%
Velvet Rhythm
7.10
7.90
+11.3%
7 min
2.5%
Bridget's View
11.70
13.49
+15.2%
7 min
7.4%
Ffos Las 17:19 5 runners
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Someone's Wish
9.81
7.60
-22.6%
4 min
5.2%
The Ormer Gatherer
8.32
7.30
-12.3%
4 min
2.8%
Georg Zhukov
5.05
4.45
-11.8%
4 min
2.3%
Pride Eye
4.25
4.02
-5.3%
4 min
3.7%
Wellwhatshappenin
2.93
3.82
+30.5%
4 min
3.9%
Curragh 17:30 18 runners, 3 outside the usual range
Runner
First seen
Last seen
Move
Last look
Spread
Timandi
42.02
19.96
-52.5%
under 1 min
10.0%
Fianna
10.34
5.20
-49.7%
under 1 min
3.8%
No More Porter
22.60
15.21
-32.7%
under 1 min
9.9%
If Not For Grace
80.65
61.54
-23.7%
15 min
24.4%
Lamar Valley
52.49
40.82
-22.2%
under 1 min
14.8%
Justenzia
8.49
6.90
-18.8%
under 1 min
2.9%
Lamberella
85.84
73.53
-14.3%
15 min
26.9%
Rocket Robyn
19.18
18.23
-4.9%
under 1 min
8.2%
Palace Tyne
76.63
76.63
0.0%
under 1 min
19.3%
Belle Nuit
58.65
61.54
+4.9%
under 1 min
24.4%
Out On Friday
90.91
99.01
+8.9%
2h
50.4%
Kimy
80.65
88.50
+9.7%
45 min
57.1%
Dark Summit
9.78
10.75
+9.9%
under 1 min
4.6%
Chipsrdown
6.09
6.79
+11.6%
under 1 min
5.8%
Bhean Saibhre
7.47
8.60
+15.2%
under 1 min
4.6%
It's Good To Talk
57.14
88.89
+55.6%
under 1 min
22.5%
Alfalfa
39.06
71.68
+83.5%
under 1 min
21.0%
Casheldale Lass
14.43
32.73
+126.8%
under 1 min
18.2%
“One-sided” means the book had no back or no lay at our last look, so there was no spread to quote. It is the state of the book, not missing data.
What “usual” meant that day
The reference each move was judged against: every move we had measured over the 38 days before this one, by the price the runner opened at. The median is near zero in every band. What changes with the price is how far a move normally goes.
Opening price
Moves measured
5th pct
25th
Median
75th
95th pct
1.5 to 3
515
-21.4%
-8.6%
+0.4%
+10.0%
+38.2%
3 to 5
1,378
-27.5%
-10.3%
+1.2%
+14.3%
+44.4%
5 to 8
2,170
-31.7%
-12.8%
+0.1%
+14.1%
+51.0%
8 to 13
2,554
-34.6%
-13.6%
+2.1%
+20.6%
+66.7%
13 to 20
1,997
-38.1%
-15.1%
+3.3%
+26.8%
+78.0%
20 to 35
2,021
-42.5%
-16.0%
+6.1%
+32.8%
+101.9%
35 to 100
2,250
-55.4%
-27.2%
-4.3%
+20.9%
+70.5%
A runner is counted as outside the usual range when its move sits at or below the 5th percentile, or at or above the 95th, for its band. A runner whose opening price falls in a band with fewer than 100 measured moves is left out of the record rather than judged against too little.