mazetick

Order book. Smarkets.

2 runners moved further than usual for their price

Every portal lists drifters. The number that makes a list mean anything is the one nobody publishes: how much a price of that size normally moves. A 30% drift on a 35–100 shot is a Tuesday; the same move on a 1.5–3 shot is not.

collected through 2026-10-24 11:45:01 UTCderived 2026-10-24 12:00:01 UTC

Outside the usual range

RaceRunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookHow unusual for this price
14:10 KelsoMalayalam4.842.97-38.7%1h 25mbigger than 99% of moves measured at this price
12:55 DoncasterAncient State9.296.10-34.4%10 minbigger than 95% of moves measured at this price

“Unusual” is a statement about the size of the move, nothing else. We have measured that price moves do not predict results beyond the price itself, and this page makes no claim about what any of these runners will do.

All 216 runners, grouped by race 26 races at 4 courses

Had not run when we last looked, 11:45 UTC

These races were still ahead of us at the final sample, so the market went on moving after the price shown. The record here is incomplete by construction.

12:55Doncaster10 runners, last look 10 min before the off1 outside the usual range
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Ancient State9.296.10-34.4%10 min3.3%
Schrodinger's Cat26.9518.23-32.4%10 min8.2%
Milford7.497.10-5.2%10 min2.8%
King Of Light7.106.99-1.5%10 min5.7%
Al Shabab Storm3.774.10+8.6%10 min4.9%
Boston Dan21.9124.39+11.3%10 min12.2%
Luna A Inbhir Nis17.1519.21+12.0%10 min7.9%
Sovereign Spell12.2015.48+26.9%10 min6.5%
Rosario15.6520.66+32.0%10 min12.0%
Eternal Sunshine16.2223.39+44.2%10 min12.9%
13:10Cheltenham9 runners, last look 25 min before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
O'Moore Park30.7225.41-17.3%25 min12.0%
Lisbane Park5.004.25-15.0%25 min2.3%
Sony Bill57.1456.50-1.1%25 min26.4%
Ballykinlar23.3923.390.0%25 min12.9%
Rockonliam5.755.750.0%25 min5.2%
Spectacularsunrise4.404.45+1.2%25 min2.3%
Sogna In Grande13.7516.25+18.2%25 min3.1%
As Legends Have It8.6910.48+20.5%25 min9.6%
De Temps En Temps8.4910.75+26.6%25 min4.6%
13:30Doncaster7 runners, last look 45 min before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Sergei Diaghilev11.209.69-13.5%45 min6.2%
Giant Sequoia23.3922.40-4.3%45 min13.3%
Burning Up4.854.70-3.1%45 min4.3%
Al Hudaiba10.1410.25+1.0%45 min4.9%
Gran Dia13.7514.20+3.3%45 min10.5%
Noble Exhibit2.302.39+3.9%45 min0.8%
Breacher15.4320.49+32.8%45 min4.9%
13:37Kelso6 runners, last look 52 min before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Treshnish Point68.7342.02-38.9%52 min49.8%
Eazy Breezy2.552.27-11.0%52 min2.6%
Cape Warrior4.894.50-8.1%52 min4.5%
Royal March6.377.69+20.6%52 min7.8%
Jessmarvel4.545.85+28.6%52 min5.1%
Oor Wish48.5476.63+57.9%52 min19.3%
13:45Cheltenham5 runners, last look 1h before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Landsborough35.0325.41-27.4%1h12.0%
Woodstock Octo8.678.10-6.6%1h2.4%
Road To Wembley2.692.55-5.2%1h0.8%
Newbrook Diamond3.773.80+0.7%1h2.7%
Kashchei4.905.80+18.4%1h3.4%
14:05Doncaster7 runners, last look 1h 20m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Angels Passing10.379.10-12.2%1h 20m2.2%
Hi Corbett Court6.496.05-6.8%1h 20m5.0%
Rogue Jewel26.8525.41-5.3%1h 20m12.0%
Crystal Queen12.7112.20-4.0%1h 20m12.4%
Big Hitter34.9734.78-0.5%1h 20m17.2%
Elevating21.1021.39+1.4%1h 20m14.0%
Bengal Tiger1.821.90+4.7%1h 20m0.5%
14:10Kelso5 runners, last look 1h 25m before the off1 outside the usual range
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Malayalam4.842.97-38.7%1h 25m2.0%
Realisation5.455.99+10.0%1h 25m6.7%
Suspected6.297.09+12.8%1h 25m8.5%
Wearelongterm6.147.29+18.7%1h 25m8.2%
Society Soldier3.454.50+30.4%1h 25m4.5%
14:20Cheltenham17 runners, last look 1h 35m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Lucky Bere36.7625.41-30.9%1h 35m12.0%
Divilabother34.7825.41-26.9%1h 35m12.0%
Love Of Neymore40.8233.00-19.1%1h 35m5.9%
Idaho Fire9.397.99-14.9%1h 35m5.0%
Gowel Road26.8522.94-14.6%1h 35m8.7%
Kitty Foyle32.7328.99-11.4%1h 35m7.0%
Gold For Alec38.3934.78-9.4%1h 35m17.2%
Blizzard Of Oz80.6573.53-8.8%1h 35m26.9%
Seaniecon4.204.10-2.4%1h 35m4.9%
Lihyan25.2526.42+4.6%1h 35m11.4%
Champagne Chic17.9519.21+7.0%1h 35m7.9%
No More Bolero35.5938.76+8.9%1h 35m15.6%
Ace Of Spades7.899.20+16.6%1h 35m4.3%
Thank You Ma'am22.4726.49+17.9%1h 35m4.0%
Grann's Boy17.7121.39+20.7%1h 35m14.0%
Bold Endeavour44.8461.54+37.2%1h 35m24.4%
Moon Rocket10.7516.22+50.9%1h 35m9.3%
14:40Doncaster4 runners, last look 1h 55m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Scienza6.195.85-5.6%1h 55m5.1%
National Honour1.641.63-0.9%1h 55m1.2%
Shadow King10.2510.70+4.3%1h 55m14.0%
Rock Steady Beat7.188.20+14.2%1h 55m4.9%
14:44Kelso5 runners, last look 1h 59m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Treaty Boy6.145.60-8.8%1h 59m3.6%
Achille Des Rocs2.862.78-3.0%1h 59m2.9%
Garde Des Champs5.835.94+1.9%1h 59m8.4%
Too Cool Forshrule7.237.69+6.3%1h 59m7.8%
Ballyfort5.445.99+10.2%1h 59m6.7%
14:55Cheltenham9 runners, last look 2h 10m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Karnaval Point15.9414.20-10.9%2h 10m10.5%
Uncle Bert7.496.89-8.0%2h 10m8.7%
Diamond Dealer5.855.55-5.1%2h 10m5.4%
Mt Fugi Park14.2013.71-3.5%2h 10m10.9%
Here Comes Georgie4.704.55-3.2%2h 10m2.2%
Moon D'orange10.4811.48+9.6%2h 10m8.7%
Katate Dori5.996.79+13.3%2h 10m5.8%
Shannon Royale18.6721.39+14.5%2h 10m14.0%
Neo King22.8328.45+24.6%2h 10m10.6%
15:14Kelso7 runners, last look 2h 29m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Boston Jury35.2728.99-17.8%2h 29m7.0%
Two Auld Pals5.684.70-17.3%2h 29m4.3%
Ashdown Forest2.792.55-8.5%2h 29m2.3%
Travis Wheatley10.4611.20+7.1%2h 29m13.4%
Character Testing13.5315.43+14.0%2h 29m13.0%
Heart Above7.969.29+16.8%2h 29m6.4%
Scots Poet7.159.29+29.9%2h 29m6.4%
15:19Doncaster10 runners, last look 2h 34m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Mr Professor18.4515.21-17.6%2h 34m9.9%
River King7.196.90-4.1%2h 34m2.9%
Shipbourne10.4810.14-3.2%2h 34m6.9%
Cavolo Nero9.589.29-3.1%2h 34m6.4%
On The River10.5810.48-1.0%2h 34m9.6%
Anyasi6.296.39+1.7%2h 34m6.3%
Lir Speciale4.794.95+3.2%2h 34m6.0%
Desperate Dan10.0210.48+4.6%2h 34m9.6%
Andesite43.2045.66+5.7%2h 34m17.5%
Monoceros42.4660.06+41.4%2h 34m41.9%
15:30Cheltenham6 runners, last look 2h 45m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
One Horse Town7.095.30-25.2%2h 45m3.8%
North Shore4.804.55-5.2%2h 45m2.2%
Indian River3.473.45-0.7%2h 45m2.9%
In The Minus57.1456.98-0.3%2h 45m38.4%
Lord Byron4.605.20+13.0%2h 45m3.8%
La Luna Artista8.6912.98+49.3%2h 45m7.7%
15:50Kelso4 runners, last look 3h 5m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Mumford's Magic5.945.10-14.2%3h 5m3.9%
New Order3.172.94-7.4%3h 5m2.7%
Myretown2.772.88+4.0%3h 5m2.8%
Muskerry Rock6.298.38+33.4%3h 5m9.6%
15:55Doncaster14 runners, last look 3h 10m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Shafdar7.895.80-26.5%3h 10m3.4%
Wahdan36.7632.10-12.7%3h 10m21.8%
A Major Payne17.4416.22-7.0%3h 10m9.3%
Principality17.9517.71-1.3%3h 10m8.3%
Pearl Eye13.4913.71+1.6%3h 10m10.9%
Have Secret19.7420.66+4.6%3h 10m12.0%
Ultrasoul15.9916.72+4.6%3h 10m9.0%
Galyx5.756.14+6.9%3h 10m8.2%
City Of Delight18.4519.96+8.2%3h 10m10.0%
Janey Mackers10.4811.48+9.6%3h 10m8.7%
Bunyola Bay31.5034.97+11.0%3h 10m5.6%
Devil's Peak15.2117.21+13.2%3h 10m8.6%
Mustazeed44.9453.91+19.9%3h 10m35.0%
Castlemont8.3810.48+25.0%3h 10m9.6%
16:05Cheltenham6 runners, last look 3h 20m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Derryhassen Paddy3.953.90-1.3%3h 20m2.5%
Catchintsavo3.873.85-0.6%3h 20m2.6%
Butch Cassidy4.154.150.0%3h 20m2.4%
Turndlightsdownlow9.499.69+2.1%3h 20m6.2%
Kasino Des Mottes11.2011.70+4.4%3h 20m12.8%
Follow Your Luck17.7120.22+14.2%3h 20m7.5%
16:24Southwell4 runners, last look 3h 39m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Bill The Bull3.322.61-21.5%3h 39m2.3%
Blake's Monarch2.692.89+7.5%3h 39m3.5%
Space Dreamer5.646.49+15.0%3h 39m9.2%
Undercover Affair6.788.27+22.0%3h 39m12.1%
16:25Kelso4 runners, last look 3h 40m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Smoke Trail1.971.87-5.3%3h 40m2.1%
Newtown Rambler4.024.020.0%3h 40m3.7%
From The Clouds8.298.47+2.2%3h 40m11.8%
The Other Mozzie7.879.81+24.6%3h 40m13.3%
16:30Doncaster11 runners, last look 3h 45m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Trust Amy50.7639.92-21.4%3h 45m10.0%
Cargin Bhui44.9438.39-14.6%3h 45m26.2%
Golden Pharaoh11.2010.37-7.5%3h 45m11.5%
It Just Takes Time13.9313.21-5.2%3h 45m11.4%
Quest For Fun5.154.90-4.8%3h 45m4.1%
Salam Dubawi6.796.50-4.3%3h 45m3.1%
Territorial Knight14.4314.430.0%3h 45m13.9%
Crown Office5.105.15+1.0%3h 45m2.0%
Beale Street25.2527.29+8.0%3h 45m18.4%
Cotai Belle19.4921.39+9.7%3h 45m14.0%
Zarvali11.2014.20+26.8%3h 45m10.5%
16:40Cheltenham11 runners, last look 3h 55m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Freetobe19.1012.48-34.6%3h 55m8.0%
Ballycrystal Boy4.603.59-21.8%3h 55m8.3%
Micky Haller10.709.49-11.2%3h 55m6.4%
Milord D'anjou10.4810.14-3.2%3h 55m15.8%
Ask Millie32.8933.61+2.2%3h 55m32.8%
Delusionofgrandeur17.1518.23+6.3%3h 55m8.2%
Dennis's Honor70.1877.52+10.5%5h 10m64.5%
Littlebobbydazzler12.4113.93+12.2%3h 55m14.3%
Tythingman6.297.09+12.8%3h 55m8.5%
Port Isaac10.4812.71+21.3%3h 55m11.7%
Cask Of Pimlico14.4320.81+44.2%3h 55m19.1%
16:55Kelso9 runners, last look 4h 10m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Berwick Law12.329.29-24.6%4h 10m6.4%
Burgundy Man21.9118.08-17.5%4h 10m19.3%
Maillot Blanc13.1312.41-5.5%4h 10m16.1%
Bold Light6.296.10-3.0%4h 10m3.3%
Summergrounds5.835.70-2.3%4h 10m3.5%
Punxsutawney Phil20.4920.18-1.5%4h 10m24.8%
Lets Mingle6.036.29+4.2%4h 10m9.6%
Evenwood Sonofagun14.2215.15+6.5%4h 10m16.5%
Ebselysees5.776.49+12.4%4h 10m9.2%
17:00Southwell12 runners, last look 4h 15m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Kanishka79.0552.22-33.9%4h 15m67.4%
Shes Got A Brother9.098.29-8.8%4h 15m7.2%
Bona Fortuna9.188.39-8.6%4h 15m4.8%
Moulin Booj13.1312.41-5.5%4h 15m16.1%
Alondra34.9733.56-4.0%4h 15m23.8%
Almaty Star12.6312.20-3.4%4h 15m12.4%
Night Storm7.697.58-1.4%4h 15m10.6%
Rhythm N Hooves5.205.30+1.9%4h 15m3.8%
Henrythenate40.4942.46+4.9%4h 15m23.7%
Sugar Hill Babe53.9157.97+7.5%4h 15m70.2%
Betsen6.907.79+13.0%4h 15m5.1%
Glamorous Breeze10.5812.25+15.7%4h 15m4.0%
17:05Doncaster12 runners, last look 4h 20m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Prosperitas4.983.77-24.2%4h 20m4.0%
King's School14.2013.93-1.9%4h 20m14.3%
Highland Olly26.2525.84-1.6%4h 20m15.6%
Invincible Boy32.1032.100.0%4h 20m21.8%
Spirit Genie25.2525.250.0%4h 20m19.9%
Tolstoy10.7010.700.0%4h 20m14.0%
Stanage6.796.89+1.4%4h 20m8.7%
Gold Queen Kindly22.2223.39+5.3%4h 20m12.9%
Feel The Need14.7216.72+13.6%4h 20m9.0%
Freddie Steady Go5.656.69+18.4%4h 20m8.9%
Magic Boy24.2429.90+23.3%4h 20m13.5%
Itsatenfromlen21.8127.29+25.1%4h 20m18.4%
17:30Southwell14 runners, last look 4h 45m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Miss Veronika15.3311.20-26.9%4h 45m13.4%
Alkaios20.5517.95-12.7%4h 45m11.2%
Highland Harvey9.909.58-3.2%4h 45m8.4%
Nymphaea44.6443.48-2.6%4h 45m43.6%
Spirit Of Nature5.745.59-2.5%4h 45m7.2%
Masego5.775.69-1.4%4h 45m7.0%
Havachoc10.2510.14-1.1%4h 45m6.9%
Fighting Poet71.6872.20+0.7%4h 45m110.6%
Raysham38.3939.14+2.0%4h 45m30.8%
Lednikov24.0124.48+2.0%4h 45m4.2%
Clipsham Noble18.8719.49+3.3%4h 45m22.9%
Hickton17.9519.21+7.0%4h 45m7.9%
The Ormer Gatherer47.5160.06+26.4%4h 45m53.2%
Wyvill9.9213.20+33.1%4h 45m30.4%
18:00Southwell8 runners, last look 5h 15m before the off
RunnerFirst seenLast seenMoveLast lookSpread
Political Resident17.4414.72-15.6%5h 15m10.2%
Jeepers Fortune61.5452.49-14.7%5h 15m39.8%
Steel Nation14.2012.71-10.5%5h 15m11.7%
Ring Of Music4.544.20-7.6%5h 15m4.7%
National Anthem2.652.67+0.8%5h 15m2.2%
Quite Simple15.4316.45+6.6%5h 15m12.2%
Naval Empire24.2427.29+12.6%5h 15m18.4%
Night Mile6.297.89+25.5%5h 15m7.6%

Within a race the order is by move, shortest to longest: when money leaves one runner for another in the same race, the two ends of the block are the two sides of it.

What a normal move looks like, by price

67 days of our own order-book collection, excluding today so that today’s moves cannot influence the yardstick that judges them. The median is near zero in every band — what changes with price is not the typical move but how far the tails reach.

PriceMoves measured5th pct25thMedian75th95th pct
1.5 – 3966-23.4%-9.6%-1.2%+10.0%+38.2%
3 – 52,330-27.5%-10.4%+1.1%+14.9%+47.6%
5 – 83,695-31.3%-13.0%0.0%+14.4%+51.9%
8 – 134,439-35.0%-14.1%+2.2%+21.8%+70.1%
13 – 203,409-37.7%-14.8%+3.7%+27.5%+84.7%
20 – 353,413-43.9%-15.2%+6.2%+34.0%+103.7%
35 – 1003,747-56.0%-27.4%-4.0%+21.8%+72.0%

Earlier editions

Every closed day is kept as the finished record: each race watched to the off. 60 editions, 21,713 runners.

EditionRunnersRacesOutside the usual rangeJudged against
2026-10-23391395064d
2026-10-22370404363d
2026-10-21331374762d
2026-10-20293303161d
2026-10-19444473260d
2026-10-18200212159d
2026-10-17423542758d
2026-10-16363403257d
2026-10-15377403856d
2026-10-14304392655d
2026-10-13331383754d
2026-10-12434475953d
2026-10-11280304252d
2026-10-10490513951d
2026-10-09476475650d
2026-10-08411466849d
2026-10-07350384248d
2026-10-06294353047d
2026-10-05493546946d
2026-10-04259293945d
2026-10-03356442544d
2026-10-02402454743d
2026-10-01400444742d
2026-09-30327385441d
2026-09-29340395040d
2026-09-28421456039d
2026-09-27214232538d
2026-09-26519536237d
2026-09-25437446236d
2026-09-24346376335d
2026-09-23351364834d
2026-09-22275363833d
2026-09-21459465532d
2026-09-20162213131d
2026-09-195905310430d
2026-09-18472476129d
2026-09-17390395328d
2026-09-16288353027d
2026-09-15353386526d
2026-09-14247291725d
2026-09-13285241424d
2026-09-12465483123d
2026-09-11354363322d
2026-09-10332372821d
2026-09-09373374020d
2026-09-08308372619d
2026-09-07329362518d
2026-09-0612513817d
2026-09-05499544416d
2026-09-04455506415d
2026-09-03389484514d
2026-09-02368394813d
2026-09-01320384912d
2026-08-31449515111d
2026-08-30266273110d
2026-08-2944648609d
2026-08-2846853708d
2026-08-2731141297d
2026-08-2629634306d
2026-08-2521226115d

An edition does not change once its day closes. Each one judges its moves against the days collected before it and nothing later, which is what the last column says. Do not read the third column as a trend: by construction about one runner in ten falls outside the 5th to 95th percentile, so the count mostly follows the number of runners.

Prices are the mid of the best available bid and offer on a public exchange order book, sampled through the day. Neither price is “now” — the first is the earliest sample we hold for that runner, and the last is the final quote we saw before the race started, because sampling stops at the off. Last look is how long before the off that final quote was taken. A dash under Spread means there was no two-sided book at that sample: someone was quoting one side only. Race times are BST. Source: Smarkets public order book. We publish what the market did, not what it means, and nothing here is a recommendation to bet.